After The Revolution Islamic Takeover of Moderate Egypt Imminent

Conservative Islam was kept at bay by moderate autocrats in Egypt for over 50 years or more. Now things are changing and not for the good either. Those ultra-orthodox violent people who were kept at the fringe of Egyptian society and seen as pariah are coming back with a vengeance.

The first few examples of these have already started emerging, these organisations have started imposing their brand of strict Islam on young couples seen out in the open.

“There is going to be a battle between two visions for Egypt,” said Abdel Moneim El-Shahat, a leader in Egypt’s fundamentalist Salafist movement, whose members spent long years in jail under President Hosni Mubarak.There are many groups but the two most prominent are the Muslim brotherhood and The Salafist

Salafists movement is based on the believe that Islam should be imposed in its pure form and they reject any new ideas or changes to it. Their members grow long beard, shun alcohol and believe in keeping their women on a leash fully covered and inside their homes. Until now this movement though quite strong in the society was not a strong political force like the Muslim Brotherhood but now they are entering into the political arena too as their leaders are busy forming new political parties. they are using all modern weapons like the internet and social media to quickly become a potent political alliance.

Abdallah al-Ashaal, a former Egyptian diplomat who is running for president as a liberal, said the Salafists will be able to rally a large base of supporters at the polls.“They vote according to orders, not to convictions,” he said.

Abboud El-Zomor, who was sentenced to 25 years imprisonment for his part in the assassination of the ex-president Anwar Sadat, had had his sentence extended by five years under the emergency law imposed after the 1981 shooting was released recently.

The old sheikh, whose release was met with great attention from the Egyptian media, does not seem to regret the assassination of Sadat and think that it is a justifiable, yet unrepeatable action. This among, other things, has provoked renewed fear and suspicion towards the role of Islamist groups in Egypt, from the conservative Salafis to the politicized Muslim Brotherhood.

“They don’t want Christians in Egypt. They want an Islamic state,” said a woman who gave her name as Mona at a Christian protest Monday against the weekend violence. Next to her, a woman in a Muslim hijab who held a wooden cross joined the protest in solidarity as chants against Salafis filled the air. “We are afraid for what will happen to us in the future when people like that are allowed to attack us and to be part of the new government,” says Mona, holding an image of Jesus aloft.

What ended in fighting that killed 12 people in the Cairo district of Imbaba started Saturday when a group of Salafis gathered at St. Mina church, claiming that the church was holding a woman who had converted from Christianity to Islam, and demanding the church release her. Such claims of conversion and kidnapping have been a flash point for sectarian tension, with Salafis in particular seizing on them in the past year.

At a convention after Friday prayers thousands of men sat cross-legged on the floor as senior Salafist clerics spread the word about their desire for an Islamic government.With no opinion polls in Egypt it is impossible to gauge the strength of the Salafists movement. Some say their percentage support is in single figures, but others are convinced they now constitute a major political force in Egyptian society.Some say these groups together may pull up-to 50% votes

"The Salafist movement is very big in Egypt," said the editor of Cairo's Democracy Review, Hala Mustafa, who recently devoted an issue of her journal to the Salafists. "The number of its members exceeds the members of the Muslim Brotherhood".

In recent days the Salafists have been accused in rural parts of Egypt of cutting off the ear of an alleged pimp, attacking an alcohol shop and smashing up some Sufi shrines on the grounds that they represent a overly superstitious approach to religion and are unislamic.

"Suddenly they have become more violent," said Hala Mustafa. "They try to turn Egypt to an Islamic state because they think there is a vacuum."

With parliamentary elections scheduled for this fall, the Salafists are poised to emerge as a powerful political force in the contest, which could become an unofficial referendum on how piously the Arab world’s largest nation should be governed in the post-revolutionary era.

There is no overarching Salafi institution, but Salafism has long had links to the Saudi government, which devotes significant funding to disseminating the movement’s beliefs, particularly those of the ultraconservative Saudi version, known as Wahhabism after the 18th century figure Mohammed ibn Abd Al Wahhab.

According to The Washington Post, the Saudi government spent as much as $8 million a year in the 1980s spreading Salafism, mostly Wahhabism, in the United States. The 2006 article mentioned a poll showing that 8 percent of US Muslims identified themselves as "favoring a Salafi approach."

At a Salafist protest in support of Osama bin Laden Friday, a young Egyptian named Ahmed who described himself as a liberal Muslim stood watching as several hundred people chanted against the US and held signs that said, “We are all bin Laden.”

Mona Makram Obeid, who once taught political science at the American University in Cairo, believes the mainstream has been galvanised by the Salafists' sudden emergence. "The Salafists have been brought out from their caves," she said. "Everyone is frightened. There is a lot of fear in society and a lot of concern."

Egypt’s revolution was not led by Islamists, and was characterized by a remarkable show of unity and solidarity between Egyptians of different backgrounds. But some Christians, who have long lived with discrimination and injustice, worry that the limited freedoms they have now will be further marginalized by the majority Muslim population.

"We as Christians are worse off after the revolution," said Mina Magdy, a young Christian. "Look at what's happening to us. Mubarak was bad, but now it's worse. The Army isn't doing anything to protect us."

Pakistan Hated By All Its Friends

Pakistan remains “an army in search of a country,” according to French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s Diplomatic Adviser. The condescending characterisation, made to former US Ambassador Richard Holbrooke and US Ambassador to France, Charles Rivkin, is contained in a previously unpublished secret US diplomatic cable dated September 3, 2009 accessed through WikiLeaks.

The French adviser, Jean-David Levitte, described as “a National Security Adviser equivalent and Holbrooke’s former counterpart at the UN”, is considered by the US Embassy in Paris to be “one of the most important and influential voices within the GOF [Government of France] on national security policy.”

While most of the secret American diplomatic cables obviously focus on American perceptions of Pakistan, some of the documents also reveal telling bits of information about how representatives of other friendly states, particularly other allies of the US government and Pakistan, view this country.

In the meeting with Holbrooke and Rivkin, which took place on August 31, 2009, Levitte also asserted that “the Pakistani army is well regarded by the Pakistani people when not in power, but that it fails when in power.” He was also “more pessimistic” than the US about Pakistan, noting that the country has “chosen Islamicisation for generation after generation” leading to a now “transformed society.”

In another cable dated January 22, 2010, Jasmine Zernini, head of the French government’s interagency Afghanistan-Pakistan cell, told American officials that although General Kayani had “learned the lesson of Musharraf” and was staying behind the scenes, she felt he was (according to the cable) “manipulating the government and parliament, including to prevent change on Pakistan’s policy towards…FATA along the Afghan border, and also to stir up controversy regarding the Kerry-Lugar bill.”

In another cable (dated September 22, 2009) detailing meetings between officials from the American and British governments, Jon Day, the Director General for Security Policy in the Ministry of Defence, noted that “recent intelligence” indicated that Pakistan was “not going in a good direction.” He also asked visiting US Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, Ellen Tauscher, “if the US would be ‘obliged’ to cut relations with Pakistan if the military took over again.” Day also inquired about US perspective on Nawaz Sharif “whom he described as ‘potentially less venal’ than other Pakistani leaders.” Previously published cables have already revealed what opinion Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz held of President Zardari and Mr. Sharif.

In the same cable, Mariot Leslie, the Director General, Defence and Intelligence of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office of the British government expresses satisfaction that China had “dumped” Pakistan in the Conference on Disarmament which in her opinion was a “good sign.”

The dismissive attitude towards Pakistan is, however, not limited to Western governments. In a cable dated December 21, 2009, Egyptian Defence Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi told US Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair that Egypt encountered the same suspicions from Pakistan as the US did. Pakistanis, he said, “don’t trust Egyptians either.” He went on to say that “while the Pakistanis were ‘difficult’… Egypt was still trying to ‘work with them.’” According to the cable, Mr Tantawi, who has previously served as the Egyptian Defence Attache to Pakistan, also pointedly noted that “any country where the military became engaged in ‘internal affairs’ was ‘doomed to have lots of problems.’”

The assessment by other friendly states of Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan is also indicative of the perceptions — whether grounded in reality or not — that Pakistan must contend with. In a secret cable dated January 23, 2010, a senior Saudi intelligence official is quoted as telling a US official that “the SAG [Saudi Arabian government] viewed the Afghan Taliban as largely under the control of Pakistan” and that “the Afghan Taliban needed support to be able to become more independent of Pakistan.”

General Masudi, the head of internal affairs for the General Intelligence Presidency of Saudi Arabia told Barnett R. Rubin, the Special Adviser to Holbrooke that “outside powers, like Iran and Pakistan, had influenced the uneducated Afghans to believe that the US and the SAG were working against the Afghan people,” adding that “We have to convey the truth to this group.”

Gen Masudi also pointed out that the Saudi government was holding a number of Afghans in prison on charges of fundraising for the Taliban and speculated that “perhaps these prisoners could be used as bargaining chips in political talks.”

Gen Masudi while being sympathetic to Pakistan’s concerns regarding Afghanistan also cautioned that it was important to “reassure Pakistan that any activities conducted wouldn’t harm its interests, otherwise there might be a backlash.” He also explained Pakistan’s unease over developments in Afghanistan by saying that “the Pakistanis felt that they deserved to have a big part in Afghanistan,” according to the cable. “They wanted to be ‘the closest friend’ and were offended when they thought Iran or India were taking this role.”

The concern over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme is, of course, a recurrent theme in many countries’ representatives conversations with US diplomats. According to the cable referenced earlier, for example, Mr Levitte, the French adviser to President Sarkozy, told the Americans that the French government was “not sure that the Pakistani nuclear deterrent is secure,” especially “with the frequent movement of nuclear weapons by the Pakistani military.” The French, he said, would provide technical assistance to Pakistan on issues of nuclear safety but “he firmly stated that the GOF would not supply nuclear energy technology.”

Egyptian Saif Al-Adel Acting Leader Of Al Qaeda

An Egyptian who was once a Special Forces officer has been chosen "caretaker" leader of al Qaeda in the wake of Osama bin Laden's death, according to a source with detailed knowledge of the group's inner workings.

Al Qaeda's interim leader is Saif al-Adel, who has long played a prominent role in the group, according to Noman Benotman. Benotman has known the al Qaeda leadership for more than two decades. He was once a leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), a militant organization that used to be aligned with al Qaeda, but in recent years renounced al Qaeda's ideology.

Benotman said that based on his personal communications with militants and discussions on jihadist forums, al-Adel, also known as Muhamad Ibrahim Makkawi, had been chosen interim chief of al Qaeda because the global jihadist community had grown restive in recent days about the lack of a formal announcement of a successor to bin Laden.

According to Benotman, this was not a decision of the formal shura council of al Qaeda, because it is currently impossible to gather them in one place, but was rather the decision of six to eight leaders of al Qaeda in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area. Al-Adel was already one of the top leaders of the group.

However, Benotman said, the choice of an Egyptian may not sit well with some Saudi and Yemeni members of al Qaeda, who believe bin Laden's successor should come from the Arabian Peninsula, a region that is holy to all Muslims. Bin Laden was from a wealthy Saudi family.

The presumed successor to bin Laden is his long-time deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is also Egyptian. Benotman, who has long been a reliable source of information about al Qaeda, said the temporary appointment of al-Adel may be a way for the leadership to gauge reaction to the selection of someone from beyond the Arabian Peninsula as the group's leader.

Al-Adel fought the Soviets in Afghanistan during the 1980s. After the fall of the Taliban in the winter of 2001 he fled to Iran. According to senior Saudi counterterrorism officials, from there al-Adel authorized al Qaeda's branch in Saudi Arabia to begin a campaign of terrorist attacks in the Saudi kingdom that began in Riyadh in May 2003, a campaign that killed scores.Some reports in the past year have suggested that al-Adel had left Iran for Pakistan.

One of the key issues that al-Adel has to reckon with now is the fallout from the large quantities of sensitive information that was recovered by U.S. forces at the compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where bin Laden was shot on May 2. That information is likely to prove damaging to al Qaeda operations.

The selection of an interim leader allows al Qaeda to begin the process of collecting allegiance, or baya, from al-Qaeda affiliates such as the Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the North Africa-based al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

Baya was a religious oath of allegiance to bin Laden rather than to the organization itself, in the same way that Nazi Party members swore an oath of fealty to Hitler rather than to Nazism. That baya must now be transferred to whomever the new leader of al Qaeda is going to be, which is likely to be al-Zawahiri, given his long role as bin Laden's deputy.

However, there is scant evidence that al-Zawahiri has the charisma of bin Laden, nor that he commands the respect bordering on love that was accorded to bin Laden by members of Al Qaeda.

Now that bin Laden is dead there is a real opportunity for the Taliban to disassociate itself from al Qaeda, as it was bin Laden who, sometime before the 9/11 attacks, swore an oath of allegiance to Taliban leader Mullah Omar as the Amir al-Muminin, "commander of the faithful," a rarely invoked religious title that dates from around the time of the Prophet Mohammed.Mullah Omar could now take the position that the new leader of Al Qaeda does not need to swear an oath of allegiance to Omar as commander of the faithful.

Such a move would satisfy a key condition for peace talks with the U.S. and Afghan governments: that the Taliban reject al Qaeda, something that they have so far not done. Al-Adel has been involved in militant activities since the late 1980s, according to an interview with him published in spring 2005 in the Arabic-language London-based daily Al-Quds al-Arabi. In the article, written by Fuad Husayn, a Jordanian journalist and writer, Al-Adel recalled that he was detained for militant activities in Egypt on May 6, 1987. "The case pertained to the assassination attempt against ex-Egyptian Interior Minister Hasan Abu-Basha. ... I was then a colonel in the Egyptian Special Forces," he said.

Al-Adel also has been involved for years in anti-American activities, other sources indicate. Mohamed Odeh, one of the bombers of the U.S. Embassy in Kenya in August 1998, told FBI interrogators that in 1993 he was ordered by al-Adel to go to Somalia to link up with local tribes and train them to fight and attack U.S. forces who were then serving there in a humanitarian mission to feed starving Somalis.

And a British-Ugandan, Feroz Ali Abbasi, who had trained in an al-Qaeda training camp in Afghanistan before 9/11, recalled in a memoir that Adel instructed him and other recruits to fight U.S. forces around Kabul or in the southern city of Kandahar during the American invasion of Afghanistan in the fall of 2001

In the interview published in Al-Quds al-Arabi, al-Adel also explained al Qaeda's motivations for the 9/11 attack: "Our main objective, therefore, was to deal a strike to the head of the snake at home to smash its arrogance."

After the fall of the Taliban, Adel recalled that he and other members of al-Qaeda found refuge in Iran: "We began to converge on Iran one after the other," he said. "...We began to rent apartments for the fraternal brothers and some of their families. The fraternal brothers of the group of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar" -- an Afghan militant then living in exile in Iran who is now a leader of the insurgency in Afghanistan -- "offered us satisfactory help in this field. They provided us with apartments and some farms that they owned."

But Al-Adel said that the Iranians subsequently arrested a large number of these "brothers."