World Watches Nervously As China Prepares To Launch Its First Aircraft Carrier

Varyag is an ex-Soviet Navy aircraft carrier constructed in the 1980s. The vessel construction stopped in 1992 after the break up of the Soviet Union. It remained in the Ukrainian shipyard unfinished until 1998 when a Macau-based Chinese company bought it for US$20 million. In March 2002, the vessel arrived in the Dalian Shipyard in northern China for refurbishment and has been stationed there since then. System installation of the vessel finally began in 2010/2011, and the vessel is expected to enter service with the PLA Navy as a training carrier around 2012.It has been given the Chinese name "Shi Lang," after an admiral who conquered Taiwan in 1681. See The Carrier On Google

History

Originally named Riga, Varyag is the second hull of the Soviet Navy Project 1143.5 (Admiral Kuznetsov class) aircraft carrier. The 67,500t vessel was laid down at the Nikolayev South Shipyard (formerly Shipyard 444) in Nikolayev on 6 December 1985 and was launched on 4 December 1988. In late 1990s, the vessel was renamed Varyag. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the ownership of the vessel was transferred to Ukraine. Construction stopped by 1992 as Ukraine was unable to fund the project by itself. By then, 70% of the construction had been finished. The vessel was structurally completed but without weapons, electronics, or propulsion.

Are The Aircraft Carriers Obsolete?

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This is a debate which has been raging for couple of years now. The question is in the modern world are the mammoth super-carriers obsolete. Do they have any real value in modern warfare or are they just a juicy target waiting to be hit.

The question divides the naval community right down the middle. each of the group have their own supporting arguments. In this article we will look into some arguments against having an aircraft carrier. We will also discuss the counter points if any.

Cost

The days of unlimited spending are long gone and all major military power with the exception of China is facing major economic hurdles. Thus it is difficult not only to build but maintain an aircraft carrier, because it may be a single ship yet it always moves in a group called Carrier Strike Group(CSG) or Carrier Battle Group(CBG). The composition of each one of these groups may wary from country to country but the general organisation is

1 Aircraft Carrier, 2 Guided Missile Cruisers, 2 Anti Aircraft Warships, 1-2 Anti Submarine Destroyers or Frigates,one attack submarine and one supply ship.

Each of these super-carriers has a crew of 6,000 sea-men and air-men. Add another 1,500-2,000 crew on the supporting ship.The current cost of acquiring one of these ships comes to around USD 25 billion for super-carriers, between 5-10 billion for standard aircraft carrier and 2-3 billion USD for light aircraft carrier. Then you will have to add the cost of the air wing. the aircrafts used on such carrier are not the normal one, they are customized for the type of landing facility on the carrier.

These costs are only for acquiring the beast, so you can imagine the amount required to maintain the ship with its supporting vessels,advanced fighters,training,ammunition, maintainance, research etc may run into few billions. For example in 2009 USS George Bush was launched at a cost of 6.7 billion USD, INS Vikramaditya will cost India 3 Billion USD. Even the new INS Vikrant being built in India will cost USD 750 million without any arms or aircraft.

While the navies procure these floating fortresses the actual size of the navy may reduce due to budget restrictions, navy will buy one of these against buying many ships.

Anti-Ship Missiles

Now comes the real issue. When the news came that China has developed a cruise missile tailor made to hit ships, it sent a shiver down most naval strategist.This news has the ability to disturb the current power balance. First lets look at what are these missiles and why are they such a danger.

Dong-Feng21(DF21 or CSS5) are intermediate range ballistic missile with a range of 2000 kilometer and a speed of nearly Mach 10. Thus it can reach any target within 12 minutes and has a range big enough to cover most of the hot spots for the Chinese navy.This missile can carry a big enough warhead to obliterate any target.

This ASBM employs a complex guidance system, low radar signature and a maneuverability that makes its flight path unpredictable making it very difficult if not impossible for it to be tracked by defense systems that it can evade tracking systems.With the help of AWAC's, UAV's and satellites the Chinese could locate,track and target these giants and use the data to guide the missile home.

If operational as is believed, the system marks the first time a ballistic missile has been successfully developed to attack vessels at sea. Ships currently have no defense against a ballistic missile attack.

The seriousness of this threat can be identified by the following statement by Robert Gates to the Navy on May 3 that U.S. enemies are “investing in weapons designed to neutralize U.S. advantages, to deny our military freedom of action while potentially threatening America's primary means of projecting power: our bases, sea and air assets, and the networks that support them.”
“We know other nations are working on asymmetric ways to thwart the reach and striking power of the U.S. battle fleet,” he said.
The higher end of what Gates called the “access-denial spectrum” is the effort to erode what has been a virtual monopoly by the United States on precision guided weapons. These include “long-range, accurate anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles that can potentially strike from over the horizon,” he said, without mentioning that the main developer of these weapons is China.

Currently no aircraft-carrier or any other ship for that matter has any Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Defense.Developing a defense for such kind of missiles is another huge investment in R&D  with an increase in production and maintainance cost.

Swarm-Attack

This is a concept being put into practice by the Iranian navy. Thy have a large number of small but fast gunboats which can carry missiles and rockets. Individually they are useless against a whole CSG but used in a pack in a narrow area, they can be deadly. The same strategy at a lower level without proper arms and gunboats is being used by the Somali pirates. If the aircraft carrier is attacked by a swarm of missiles and rockets, the possibility of few getting through the defenses are much higher.

To destroy a aircraft carrier you don't have to actually sink it, Just damage the deck or the catapult or the support ship which provide fuel and munition can be enough to render the whole CSG defunct.

Submarines

The bigger they are the harder they fall" is a principle that doesn't just work in heavyweight boxing; it also applies to nuclear-powered aircraft carriers faced with swarms of attacking diesel-powered submarines.
Slowly even the submarines have evolved into a more deadly war equipment. Air Independent Submarines-Modern diesel subs, of the kind built by Germany, France, and Russia are sold around the world and come equipped with new AIP technology allowing them to remain undetected for weeks. Such weapons can easily come into the possession of rogue states such as Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela, and perhaps already are. Diesel boats are also far quieter than nuclear subs, and there are more than 400 built or building in the world today.

A Song-class Chinese submarine equipped with wake-homing torpedos and anti-ship cruise missiles surfaced within five miles of the USS Kitty Hawk in waters near Okinawa on Oct. 26 in what U.S. defense officials said was a provocative act. Defense officials believe the Chinese submarine was practicing for tracking and targeting carriers. 


Adm. Fallon said that the Kitty Hawk and escorting warships were conducting exercises at the time of the incident, but the maneuvers did not include anti-submarine activities. "But if they had been, and this Chinese submarine happened to come in the middle of this, then this could well have escalated into something that was very unforeseen." He did not elaborate.

American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk - a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board.By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier.According to senior Nato officials the incident caused consternation in the U.S. Navy.

The Americans had no idea China's fast-growing submarine fleet had reached such a level of sophistication, or that it posed such a threat.One Nato figure said the effect was "as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik" - a reference to the Soviet Union's first orbiting satellite in 1957 which marked the start of the space age.The incident, which took place in the ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan, is a major embarrassment for the Pentagon.

It was not the first time the Kitty Hawk was shadowed by a Chinese submarine, and the Navy's relatively timid response contrasts sharply with its reaction to a 1994 encounter. For two days in October 1994, aircraft from the Kitty Hawk chased a Chinese nuclear submarine to within three miles of the Chinese coast after the submarine was detected shadowing the carrier battle group about 200 miles away in the Yellow Sea. China responded by threatening to shoot down the U.S. anti-submarine warfare aircraft and flew its fighters in the direction of the carrier.
"It was quite upsetting to me when I read of a Chinese sub tracking our fleet in the Pacific and we didn't even know it. That's bothers me a lot," said Rep. C.W. Bill Young, Florida Republican and chairman of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee.

Diesel powered, Kilo-type subs cannot stay at see indefinitely and they lack the range of the nuclear-powered subs of the U.S. British and Russian navies of sailing anywhere in the world without refueling and still having full operational capabilities. But given a base a few hundred or even a thousand miles form their operational areas they are formidable weapons and China has invested big in them. In 2006, China built 14 diesel-powered subs while the United States built only a single nuclear one.

Wake-homing torpedoes are guided by sensors that detect the turbulence of a ship’s wake. The torpedo snakes from side to side within the cone of the wake and follows it to the ship’s stern before detonation.

Many navies today, including those of China, North Korea and Iran, arm their submarines with wake-homing torpedoes.

“The most effective way to avoid the torpedo is not to get within range of the submarine,” said Capt. Randy Hill, director of training for Fleet Antisubmarine Warfare Command in San Diego. “Many of the procedures and tactics are still valid, even from World War II, but the added technology proliferating out there presents the additional challenge.” 

Hill said the Navy has tactics to defeat wake-homing torpedoes, but stressed that the focus of antisubmarine tactics is to avoid submarines so as to “not get shot at” before the submarine can be attacked. 

Shkval torpedo-This Russian weapon utilizes super-cavitation technology giving it an astounding underwater speed of 200 knots. The Navy has stated “Fitted with a nuclear warhead, Shkval could obliterate entire US naval battle groups and abruptly blow a hole in the USA’s carrier based air superiority doctrine”. Iran is said to possess a version called the "Hoot"

According to an officer aboard the USS Russell,
anti-submarine warfare is probably the most challenging mission a ship or strike group can perform, especially when done well. It involves nearly every asset and tactic you can imagine, as ships and aircraft perform a thorough and sustained search by listening with passive sensors and probing with active sensors, both electromagnetic and acoustic. From a ship’s perspective, it also involves frequent aggressive maneuvering to prevent an adversary from developing a firing solution, and the maneuvering must be done without jeopardizing the towed array sonar and torpedo countermeasures trailing thousands of feet behind the ship.



Replacement

The question arises how to replace these ships and still carry on the work intended like power-projection, sea-denial,protection of commerce etc Answer may lie in small platforms which have distributed fire power and the ability to be deployed swiftly and independently. Most of these new age weapons have already started surfacing. Some of them are  the stealth warships and the nuclear powered guided missile submarines.The Submarines with a crew of just about 150-160 can carry Tomahawk land attack missile for a fraction of cost. These are imperious to ant-ship ballistic missiles or swarm tactics of smaller navies. It is very hard to detect them too.

Thus in all probability the day of smaller faster and stealthier ships are here and our beloved Aircraft carriers might be riding into the sunset.
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If readers have a counter point please be kind enough to email me on sudeeplko@gmail.com or give your views as comments. If you would like to write an article to counter the above mentioned views or support it please let me know and I will be happy to publish it.

Chinese Shenyang J-15 OR Stolen Su-33

J-15

Su-33

Beijing is revealing pictures of its Shenyang J-15 Flying Shark design that is intended to populate the decks of its first aircraft carrier.

The J-15 is based on the J-11B, Shenyang's unlicensed and indigenously adapted version of the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker, and resembles its Russian equivalent, the Su-33 shipboard version, with a foreplane, folding wings, arrester hook and reinforced landing gear. Like the Su-33, the J-15 is designed to take off from a ski jump rather than a catapult. There are some differences from the Su-33, including more complex trailing-edge flaps and advanced Chinese avionics.Many components onboard J-15 are based on those onboard J-11B, such as a similar radar, improved FBW, the same glass cockpit as well as the improved WS-10 turbofan engine. It can also fire a variety of Chinese designed weapons, including PL-8, PL-12 AAMs and YJ-83K AShM. Overall J-15 is believed to be in the same class of American F/A-18C.

Ukraine is the source of China's Su-33/Flanker D, U.S. analysts agree.
"Russia's carrier training is done in Ukraine at Saki, and for years there was one of the first prototype Su-33s sitting there," one of the analysts says. "It disappeared a few years ago and likely ended up in China. The most recent photos of the J-15 show that they are either already entering low-rate initial production or close to it. I expect these to move to the training facilities soon and begin the long road to carrier qualification."

The program began after a Su-33 prototype was acquired/stolen from Ukraine in 2001. China offered to buy Su-33s from Russia as recently as 2009.A Ukrainian court convicted a Russian man in February of conspiring to give the Chinese details of a Crimean air base that had been used to train Su-33 pilots to take off from a carrier's ski jump ramp, according to the New York Times.

The unlicensed adaptation has been a source of friction with Moscow, says Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace with London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.Russiam military analysts claim that China's J-15 carrier-based fighter will not be able to compete with Russia's Su-33 fighter on global markets because it is inferior to the Russian aircraft:

"The Chinese J-15 clone is unlikely to achieve the same performance characteristics of the Russian Su-33 carrier-based fighter, and I do not rule out the possibility that China could return to negotiations with Russia on the purchase of a substantial batch of Su-33s," said Col. (Ret.) Igor Korotchenko, a member of the Defense Ministry's Public Council. According to Russian Defense Ministry sources, the earlier refusal of Su-33 Flanker-D fighters sale to China, was due to findings that China had produced its own copycat version of the Su-27SK fighter jet in violation of intellectual property agreements. In 1995, China secured a $2.5-billion production license from Russia to build 200 Su-27SKs, dubbed J-11A, at the Shenyang Aircraft Corp.

The J-15's canards replicate those on the Su-33, indicating its flight control system is at least similar, Barrie says. Moreover, "a mock-up of the J-15 was seen carrying a dummy anti-ship missile, suggesting the J-15 may be intended to have a strike role from the outset, while the Su-33 was an air-to-air design."

The heavy shipborne fighter will be yet another piece in the foundation of a ship-based force that can project power at sea, far from China's shore defenses. They are expected to be first based on the former Russian Varyag aircraft carrier. The first pictures were taken at Shenyang Aircraft Industry Corp.'s No. 112 factory.

The design features exterior missile rails and a wide-angle holographic head-up display similar to those on the company's J-11 fighter.

There are competing claims about the aircraft's capability. Russian's Ria Novosti news service called it inferior to the Su-33, but Chinese officials say the Su-33's avionics are obsolete, so they have installed locally made sensors, displays and weaponry.

While based structurally on the Su-33, the aircraft features avionics — including an advanced anti-ship radar — from the J-11B program. Deployment is expected no earlier than 2016.

Analysts and aircraft watchers in China say the aircraft's first flight was made on Aug. 31, 2009, powered by a Russian-supplied AL-31.


In Huludao, a navy installation on China's northeast coast, workers are said to have built a rough clone of the Crimea test center, complete with a ski ramp for short takeoffs.

"There are lots of photos of a [dry, ground-based] carrier training facility that has a static flight deck for crew training," the U.S. analyst says. "The facility is shaped like a carrier, with the dormitories and classrooms below the flight deck. It already has both a Flanker mock-up and a helicopter [onboard] to qualify deck and maintenance crews for carrier operations. Another facility at Xian has the ski jump for carrier takeoffs and the arresting gear network for landings. We expect to see these J-15s do a lot of work there."

Taiwan intelligence officials say the aircraft carrier — thought to be slated for a training role — could make its first voyage by the end of the year.

The warship has been docked in China's eastern Dalian harbor, where it has undergone extensive refurbishing since 2002."The carrier is also interesting in that it appears to be fitted with a close-in [Club-type cruise missile] weapons system," Barrie says.

U.S. intelligence analysts agree with the Taiwanese officials. "Just last month we started seeing the powerplants firing up, showing they are getting really close to going to sea trials sometime this year,  as soon as this summer," the U.S. analyst says. "They've also discussed a second carrier using the knowledge gained from their work on the one they bought from the Russians."

China and its aircraft carrier ambitions

China may be launching its first aircraft carrier by the end of 2011. But it has been a long road for the last 40-50 years with more twists and turns than a spy thriller. Here are few basic facts about their ambitions

1. Communist Party Chairman Mao Zedong proposed building "railways on the high seas," fleets of merchant ships escorted by aircraft carriers, at a meeting of the Central Military Commission (CMC) in 1958. The proposal died because of a lack of funds.
2. Mao's successor, Chairman Hua Guofeng, endorsed plans to import or co-produce an 18,000-ton light aircraft carrier in the late 1970s but the project was scrapped because British suppliers asked for too high a price.
3. Deng Xiaoping, who succeeded Hua as paramount leader, cut defense spending to free up resources for the economy.
4. Admiral Liu Huaqing championed an aircraft carrier programme when he served as People's Liberation Army (PLA) navy chief from 1982 to 1988 and CMC vice-chairman from 1992 to 1997.
5. President Jiang Zemin, who was concurrently Communist Party chief and CMC chairman, rejected Liu's idea lest it rattle the United States and China's neighbors.
6. Jiang's successor, Hu Jintao, has given his blessings to the carrier programme.

COST

1. The navy reportedly receives billions of dollars annually for weapons acquisition, and the figure is likely to grow.
2. The cost of building a medium-sized conventionally powered, 60,000-tonne carrier similar to the Russian Kuznetsov class is likely to be more than $2 billion.
3. A carrier needs aircraft and escorts -- combat aircraft, airborne early warning systems, anti-submarine warfare and search-and-rescue helicopters, guided-missile destroyers, frigates and supply ships.
4. The total cost of one carrier battle group is about $10 billion, spread over a 10-year development period. China is likely to acquire at least two.
5. The cost for training, maintenance, repairs and fuel for a carrier battle group is estimated at about 10 percent of the construction cost, or $200 million.

VARYAG

1. The 300-meter (1,000-foot) Varyag, designed to displace 67,500 tonnes fully loaded, was conceived in the 1980s to be a jewel in the Soviet navy's crown to challenge U.S. naval power.
2. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, newly independent Ukraine was left with the Varyag, 80 percent complete but with no engine or rudder.
3. Repeated bids to sell the Varyag failed until it was sold for $20 million in 1998 to a Chinese company, Agencia Turistica e Diversoes Chong Lot Limitada, to be turned into a floating casino.
4. In 2000, Turkey rejected a Chinese request for the Varyag to pass through the crowded Bosphorous strait, which separates Asia and Europe, into the open sea. Turkey argued that the vessel posed too great a danger to its 12 million inhabitants and the villas and palaces that line the banks of the Bosphorus.
5. After the carrier was forced to wait at the mouth of the Bosphorus for 15 months, Turkey agreed to allow it to use the waterway in 2001. China agreed to encourage Chinese tourists to visit Turkey and import more Turkish goods.
6. The Dutch ITC company was employed to tow the Varyag to China from Ukraine. But in another twist, strong wind snapped tow ropes as tugs were guiding the ship through the Aegean Sea. For 12 hours, the carrier drifted toward the island of Evia before it was secured.
7. The Varyag, delivered in 2002, is being refitted at a state-run shipyard in the northeastern port city of Dalian. China has gained engineering and technical assistance from Russia and Ukraine.
8. The Varyag could be launched as early as 2011, but it is unlikely to be operational for years.

WHAT COULD IT BE USED FOR?

1. China sees its ever-expanding fleet of merchant ships, especially oil tankers, and the shipping lanes they use through the Malacca Strait and elsewhere, as needing protection. Chinese warships have undertaken anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden.
2. Growing overseas investment and rising numbers of Chinese citizens living or working overseas also need protection.
3. China's prosperous coast and resource-rich exclusive economic zones and territories -- including claims to the Spratly Islands -- need to be secured in the event of disputes.
4. A carrier could be used in humanitarian aid or disaster relief operations.
5. Analysts are divided over whether an aircraft carrier would be necessary if China ever wanted to intimidate, or invade, Taiwan.

DECOMMISSIONED CARRIERS

1. China bought for scrap the Australian carrier HMAS Melbourne in 1985.
2. The ex-Russian Minsk was acquired in 1998.
3. The decommissioned Kiev arrived in the northern port city of Tianjin in 2000.
4. The Minsk and Kiev were probably bought as "cadavers" to be dissected and serve as templates for indigenous carriers.