Friday, 12 September 2014

CNN publishes most amateurish commentary on Iraq


Here is another example of people writing an article without having the slightest idea about the situation, only mantra is write anything to attack the Government. Came across this master piece on CNN website.
She gives a 4 point resolution master plan for Iraq.

Obama can fight ISIS without bombs
Pro-military hawks must be pleased with President Obama's speech on Wednesday night about attacking ISIS. We're sure to hear many of them -- the same voices that have been hounding the President to take military action in the first place -- call for more extensive strikes and even American troops on the ground.

Let us discuss what Sally Kohn's 4 point formula is:

1) Cut access to guns and money.
Madam how does Obama cut access to gun and money when borders are controlled by nations with various interests and groups within those nations with different ideologies(some love ISIS, some hate them). Only way to seal borders is to use military. If you remember, outsourcing border duties to Pakistan came back to haunt the Americans later.

She mentions "US allies", which one is she talking about Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey......? Most of the so-called allies are instrumental in setting up this organisation and propping it up to break the Shia arc.

Turkey has opened its borders for ISIS to operate freely and helps in transportation of fighters from Syria to Iraq.

2) Fix Iraq's political rifts.
How does a foreign power fix the internal politics of a country. This is exactly what got Americans into trouble. They tried to fix Saddam Hussein and invaded Iraq. Unless political parties and different parts of the society in a country is willing to change, how can a foreigner do it. Remember Mr Paul Bremer's and Rumsefield understanding of Iraqi internal situation. Asking a country to play politics in another country smacks not only of  foolishness at best but a superiority complex at worst.

Iraqi society does not comprise of just whites, blacks and Hispanics with majority Christians(all variety).  Had that been the case, yes a simple nudge or a summit at camp David would have sufficed. Unfortunately as we have seen Iraq is a melting pot of different factions and they must have a secure environment with safety guaranteed to at least start thinking about unity. At the present moment due to the utter chaos, it is every man for himself.

3) Provide humanitarian assistance.
Please be kind enough to explain how do you send "humanitarian" assistance to Irbil or Mount Sinjar or Allepo when it is surrounded by heavily armed barbaric militia. What do you do airdrop food from the air, we all know that kind of strategy only works on a large area where accuracy is not important. Next is use helicopters to do the same for better distribution, but what about the mad mullah with a RPG sitting on a mountain top.

Even in an area as Kashmir, air-force had to scale down its operation after its helicopter's were stoned(not RPG). Same was the issue with Naxal affected areas, unless the ground troops could provide a sanitized area it was impossible for the choppers to operate. 

How many UN peacekeepers are needed to distribute supplies in Africa?

Therefore madam your assertion about "Humanitarian" assistance without proper military force and air-cover is not only pipe dream but a sure way to hand over billions of dollars of supplies to ISIS.


4)Lead a truly international response.
Another point which shows that the author is truly unaware of the situation. How do you get UN members to agree to fight for America. As she herself mentions that the  mess was created by the Americans and Obama in particular, thus going to UN would mean asking Russia and China to help clean America's mess. Good luck with that.

  • Relations with Russia at the present moment are touchy to say the least and after the Serbian treachery it is very hard for the Russians to believe anything USA says.
  • China has a stout policy of no interference.
  • Saudi is a sunni country and there troops in Iraq means  Shias would be up in arms.
  • Reports are that Saudi's are pumping in millions of dollar in a new Sunni outfit called Jais-E-Islam with the hep of Pakistan.
  • UAE is the hub of fundraising for Al-Nusra and the likes.
  • Turkey will not lift a finger to help the Kurds.
  • Qatar and Saudi will try their best to use ISIS against Shias, plus destabilize Assad and Iran, thus there are no chances of them playing fair.
  • Direct Iranian involvement would mean handing ammo to Sunnis for sectarian conflict.
  • European countries are struggling with economy and some would shy away after the the original Iraqi blunder.

Does the author seriously believe that countries like Indonesia, Burma, Thailand, Japan, Australia, France, Egypt etc would commit troops/material for another US led misadventure?
Firstly getting a resolution for action passed in the security council is bleak possibility, secondly sending NATO troops is not really an international coalition is it?

So madam, please write a follow up explaining to us, how is your 4 point formula different from the Rumsefield era power point presentations.

With ISIS on ground and being a cohesive military unit, it is impossible for Iraq and Syria to stabilize and unless Obama gives up his favored "Get Assad" policy, resolution of any kind is bleak.

On the other hand recent tactical withdrawal by ISIS under air attack and ground offensive shows the limitation of its capabilities and a pointer towards the way forward.

Monday, 8 September 2014

Indian Navy and the Cursed P-75I


Seven years and this project has not got even started and now the Navy has accepted that all six submarines will be built in India instead of the earlier plan of importing the first two.

Since 2007 Defense Ministry and Finance Ministry have been playing a game of hide and seek for the Navies project P-75I.  Even at the cost of our maritime security which is at its lowest ebb ever with India being down to just 13 ageing diesel-electric submarines, with only half of them operational at present.

Under this project navy wanted 6 submarines with land attack capability and air-independent propulsion. 2 of which were to be imported and 4 were to be built in-house in joint venture with the foreign vendor and Indian Shipyard. Even the shipyards were identified and ready. According to the original plan three were to be constructed at Mazagon Docks (Mumbai) and one at Hindustan Shipyard (Visakhapatnam) with technology transfer from the foreign company eventually selected.

The Scorpene project is already 4 years late and the first sub will role out may be in 2016.

In desperation the Indian navy has given into the demand of the Government to allow all the submarines to be built in India rather than importing the first two.

Even if the RFP is issued this year it will take another 3 years for the contract and another 7-8 yeas for the first submarine to be anywhere near operational.

Just compare this to the original plan. According to the envisaged plan, 12 new submarines were to be inducted to the navy by 2012, and was to be supplemented with 12 more submarines by 2030.

Another plan was:

The supersonic Brahmos will also be a principal missile to equip the six Indian Navy Project 75I submarines, for which the Indians are considering the Russian Amur class sub. Another sub being considered is the German Class-214. Plans to install the missile in the fifth and sixth Scorpene class submarines were cancelled after the Indian Navy decided to equip these subs with air independent propulsion (AIP), thus extending the submarine to its maximum length.

All these plans are now sound like castle in the air to me without any dose of realism.


So in order to have enough submarines to defend India’s maritime borders the Indian Navy can opt for 18 Scorpene Submarines, Why?
As mentioned earlier the RFP and production is going to take atleast 11 years, by which time our navies operational capabilities will become next to nothing.
Even if P75I selection is done by 2018 the first submarine will role out only by 2026 atleast and by that time Indian Navy will be left with just 6 Scorpenes. The 8 of the 13 subs India currently operate are on their last legs and by the time P-75I matures it will be all over for many of them.

Saturday, 6 September 2014

China's 'expansionist' urge

Two more instances of Chinese intrusion reported in East Ladakh; One in Demchok and the other in Towkhin in Ladakh. The Indian Army and the Chinese troops had a tough face off. As China's aggression along the LAC is increasing, will India take a tough stand?

1965, Maj. General Of Indian Army panics and runs like a coward

Maj. Gen. Niranjan Prasad, the Indian general commanding officer in Lahore sector ran away, when Pakistani Army Defense Forces counter-attacked the intruding Indian military and the general was fired upon on Sept 6, 1965. "On learning that, Lt. Gen. Harbakash Singh and the corps commander drove in a Jonga (Nissan P60 Jeep) to the battlefront. Army commander found that the enemy (PAF) air attack had created a havoc on G.T. Road. (Indian) Vehicles were burning and several vehicles of 15 Division abandoned on the road, the drivers having run away, leaving some of the engines still running. Maj. Gen. Niranjan Prasad was hiding in a recently irrigated sugar cane field. As described by Harabakash Singh: "He (Prasad) came out to receive us, with his boots covered with wet mud. He had no head cover, nor was he wearing any badges of his rank. He had stubble on his face, not having shaved." Seeing him in such a stage, Harbakhash Singh asked him: "Whether he was the General Officer commanding a division or a coolie? Why had he removed badges of rank and not shaved? Niranjan Prasad had no answer."
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Deal for minesweepers needed by Indian Navy may be in jeopardy


Indian navy needs 24 minesweepers to clear mines laid by enemy warships and submarines. These mines can not only harm ships but they can virtually blockade sea ports and lanes. At present Indian Navy does not have the number, in case of emergency it will not be able to protect even one port.

Keeping this in mind a deal was signed with a South Korean company called Kangnam Corporation to buy 8 such ships. Plan was to import two ships from foreign vendors and then get the rest 6 built with technology transfer at Goa Shipyards. Unfortunately MoD has found out that this company used middlemen in the deal. As readers might be aware that using middlemen is construed as mal-practice by the MoD thus the deal may have to be scrapped.

In 2012 a BJP MP had written to the then defense minister about this deal being crooked and asked him to look into the matter. Among the other bidders for the minesweepers for the Indian Navy was the Italian firm Intermarine which was beaten by the South Korean firm’s bid. In fact, the other bidder went to the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) against the selection of Kanganam Corporation. However, the defence ministry and the Indian Navy explained to the CVC that the selection of the South Korean firm was made since they were the lowest bidder.

It is also learnt that Defense Ministry has en-cashed the bank guarantee given by the South Korean Firm. The case has been sent to Attorney General for his views.

Western Naval Command which has only one such warship left in its inventory has been forced to find novel ways of using other ships to carry out these dangerous tasks. they now rely on the portable, ‘clip-on’ side scanners which can be mounted on any of the other ships to perform mine sweeping tasks. “They are good but they are alternate measures. Every ship has a task to do and by making substitutes, there is always an area that you are neglecting,” said an officer. He added, “Today, almost every procurement in our country stands delayed. Minesweeper ships are just one of them.” The last of these minesweepers were inducted in the late 80s. In the two decades which have gone by, there has been little thinking on replacing these ships.

Friday, 5 September 2014

New Chinese road detected on the border.

Indian armies patrol party has spotted a new road link to Pangong. Due to the serious repercussions feared by the army and the general penchant for Chinese to grab Indian territory, army has intensified its patrol along that area. This was spotted on 18th of August since then LAC patrolling has been increased.

Readers might remember the Chinese People's Liberation Army(PLA) advancing several kilometer inside Indian territory at Demchok on July 28th. This lead to a heated argument with the Indo-Tibetan border Police (ITBP) jawans on the Indian side
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has made several attempts to enter into the Indian territory, triggering tension along the international border.
On July 28, the Chinese troops intruded in Demchok in Southern Ladakh after which the Chinese military and soldiers of the Indo-Tibetan border Police (ITBP) had a verbal altercation for about half an hour. The Chinese military later withdrew.
At around April last year China had sent a platoon or more men to set up tents inside our territory in Depsang  in Daulat Beg oldi sector. They stayed put until we had to abandon and remove fortifications from some of our posts in Chumar.
The new Central government in India has already made up its mind to go full throttle to develop border roads on our side facing China. It is evident that GoI has seen through the expansionists theme running through the Chinese government. India is not the isolated victim, same has happened with Vietnam, Philippines and Japan. The common thread is China forcibly and surreptitiously grabbing land and sea area of militarily weaker nations.

Ministry Of Defense admits that nearly 80 critical border roads have been stuck for many years in the due to environmental hurdles. These include crucial GS (General Staff) roads that link border outposts and camps to the main road head. We must take it with a pinch of salt though because MoD is legendary for messing things up. Some years ago they could not find enough workers to work on these roads so blaming every other ministry for their failings is pretty damn easy.
The new environmental minister of India has removed all hurdles plaguing these projects. Some rules have been modified so that construction may be started without clearance from his ministry. Plus the compulsory afforestation rule for every project has been waived off too.

In fact, the Defence Ministry has also been working on a legislation to ensure exemption of strategically significant projects — especially those along the LAC — from green regulations that may be hampering progress.